jan2013-A2

No boot hypothesis gives a seed that is worth more than chance. One seed fits under the tightest hypothesis, but about 1.7 matches were expected there, so the run is not counted as reproduced and no seed is listed as a candidate.

The run

Seven posts, 9 to 15 January 2013, daily at about five o'clock UTC, with the title clock on UTC−5 and drifting by a few seconds. The 2013 build draws 4 × Next(8, 16) per post, and the posts run from draw 1.

Draw	Post	Posted (UTC)	N
1	168cxd	9 Jan, 04:59:59	60
2	16apt8	10 Jan, 04:59:59	32
3	16d2fr	11 Jan, 04:59:58	40
4	16f8uv	12 Jan, 04:59:57	48
5	16h6ts	13 Jan, 04:59:57	40
6	16j9gs	14 Jan, 04:59:54	56
7	16lnal	15 Jan, 04:59:53	32

Why it is hard

Each post has eight possible values, so seven posts carry 21 bits: about a thousand chance matches over all seeds. The schedule is daily, so the launch can be up to 1.1 days before the first post, and the boot is not pinned. Windows of 10⁶ to 10⁸ seeds all give chance-level counts.

How it was narrowed

Step	Constraint	Candidates	Expected by chance	Seeds found
Run 40's boot	A fresh start on the boot of 9 January, booted 03:28 to 04:59	about 350,000	0.17	0, so not that boot
Run 40's stream	A continuation of the previous piece (jan2013-A1) after a schedule change	none	very small	0, so not a continuation
After A1	A boot after the previous piece's last post (8 January, 13:59:58)	about 3.5 million	1.65	1
December reboot	A reboot on 12 or 13 December, 09:00 to 12:30 UTC	about 6.9 million each	3.3 each	4 and 3
Any boot	A boot after run 39's last post	about 155 million	74	71

The single hit after the previous piece has an empirical probability of about 0.8, so it carries no weight either.

The seed that fits best

Seed	Startup draw (never posted)	Draws 1 to 7	Boot (UTC)
39,263,562	44	60, 32, 40, 48, 40, 56, 32	7 January, 15:41 to 8 January, 18:05

It is listed only because it is the only hit under the tightest hypothesis. With 1.65 expected there, it carries no weight, and the empirical probability is about 0.4 across the December windows.

What could decide it

A pinned boot together with a launch time to within about 30 minutes. A daily schedule does not give that. Realistically this piece stays undecidable unless it can be tied to another stream.