Probable run 4 (seed 200,662,541)

One seed reproduces the five posts under the configuration this operator used for the run before them. It is not unique across every range the search covered, so this run is not counted as placed: the remaining doubt is the choice of configuration, not the timing.

The run

Five posts, 13 November 2015 at 20:02 UTC to 14 November at 00:02 UTC, hourly at about two minutes past the hour, with the title clock on UTC−5. They follow 3sp5w7, posted at 19:41 UTC on a different clock (UTC−8), off the hourly slots. The post-cutover build draws from draw 1.

Draw	Post	Posted (UTC)	N
1	3sp8v5	13 Nov, 20:02:31	17
2	3sphgg	13 Nov, 21:02:32	12
3	3sppzm	13 Nov, 22:02:33	24
4	3spxxe	13 Nov, 23:02:34	48
5	3sq4qi	14 Nov, 00:02:34	10

The search

1. The boot. Run 69 (posted from 15 November, with the Next(10, 50) configuration) has a post at the :22:48 slot, which is a post at app start. That puts the boot no later than 12:01:20 UTC on 11 November 2015, the Wednesday after Patch Tuesday, at 04:01 Pacific. The search takes 11:55 to 12:01:20, which allows up to six minutes of launch delay.
2. The launch. After the start of 3sp5w7 at 19:41:33 UTC, and before the first post at 20:02:31. The seed puts the launch at 19:45:42 UTC. The 2015 seeds are not on the tick grid.
3. The search. Over every seed, for each upper bound from 49 to 81, with up to two extra draws per post and offsets up to 8, the search gave 6,752 hits in all. Exactly one has run 69's configuration (Next(10, 50), one draw per post, offset 1) in this boot window.

Hypothesis, configuration as run 69	Candidates	Expected by chance	Seeds found
11 November boot, launch after 3sp5w7 (21 minutes)	about 1.6 million	0.016	1 (200,662,541)
11 November boot, launch within 66 minutes	about 4.3 million	0.042	1 (the same)

The configuration choice

Across all the five-value windows in the same boot window, the search gave four hits where about 4.6 were expected, so the seed is not unique on timing alone:

Seed	Configuration	Note
200,662,541	Next(10, 50), draw 1	The range run 69 used two days later, on the same boot
201,924,700	Next(10, 60) or Next(10, 61), draw 1	Ranges no run of 2015 or 2016 used
201,098,914	Next(10, 49), draw 6, one extra draw per post	Five unposted draws and two samples per post: implausible

Within the ranges this operator is known to have used in 2015 and 2016, the seed is unique. The five counts are all 48 or below, which favours a top of 50 over 60 by a factor of about three.

Checks

• Draws 1 to 5 of new Random(200662541) under Next(10, 50) are 17, 12, 24, 48 and 10. The startup draw 0 is 40.
• The implied start is 19:45:42 UTC, and the first post comes 16 minutes 49 seconds later.