Probable run 3 (seed 33,600,187)

probable pre-cutover

Probable seed run: the seed rests on a narrow launch window, not on many matching posts, so a chance fit cannot be ruled out. Each one has its own page with the search.

Period (UTC): 2013-02-13 21:00:00 → 2013-02-21 20:59:50
Posts: 9 (seed: 9)
First / last post: 18guf1 / 18z62x
Count RNG: new Random(33600187), 4·Next(8,16) per post
Seed as uptime: 0 d 09 h 20 min 00 s since boot · on the 15.625 ms tick grid
First known draw: 1
Skipped draws: 0 draws the program counted for a slot with no post in our data, not counting the startup draw 0 (marked in the table below; what these draws are)
Posting interval: 24 h
Title clock: UTC−5 at the first post
Started: Wed 2013-02-13 11:45–12:53 Pacific (boot + seed)
Implied boot: 2013-02-13 10:24–11:32 (app start − seed; "F" = folded TickCount)

How the seed was found

This run is the first after the February 2013 reboot. In the window of that boot exactly one seed reproduces all nine daily posts, on the tick grid, with the first post at draw 1, as the 2013 build requires.

The run

Nine posts, 13 to 21 February 2013, daily at about 21:00 UTC, with the title clock on UTC−5. The 2013 build draws 4 × Next(8, 16) per post. Draw 0 is the startup draw, which is never posted, and the posts run from draw 1.

Draw	Post	Posted (UTC)	N
1	18guf1	13 Feb, 21:00:00	36
2	18jdpo	14 Feb, 20:59:59	60
3	18lmzz	15 Feb, 20:59:58	60
4	18nll6	16 Feb, 20:59:56	44
5	18pj8s	17 Feb, 20:59:56	40
6	18rtt6	18 Feb, 20:59:56	52
7	18u97i	19 Feb, 20:59:53	36
8	18wpsw	20 Feb, 20:59:52	36
9	18z62x	21 Feb, 20:59:50	32

The search

The boot. Patch Tuesday was 12 February 2013. Run 42 (posted from 24 February) runs on a boot of 13 February, between 10:25 and 11:32 UTC: about 02:30 to 03:30 Pacific, the hour when Windows Update restarts a machine. Run 41 last posted at 05:59:54 on 13 February, just before that reboot.
The search. Over every seed, a window from that boot to the first post gave one seed on the tick grid.

Hypothesis	Candidates	Expected by chance	Seeds found
13 February boot (the day after Patch Tuesday), launch after the boot	about 2.4 million	0.018	1 (33,600,187)
Any boot after run 41's last post (13 February, 05:59:54)	about 3.5 million	0.026	1 (the same)
Run 41's own boot, continued (19 to 20 January)	about 7.6 million	0.057	0, so excluded

Checks

Draws 1 to 9 of new Random(33600187) under 4 × Next(8, 16) are 36, 60, 60, 44, 40, 52, 36, 36 and 32. The startup draw 0 is 36.
The seed is on the 15.625 ms tick grid.
The app started between 19:45 and 20:53 UTC (11:45 to 12:53 Pacific, in working hours), 7 to 75 minutes before the first post.
The first post is at draw 1, the 2013 convention, which gives a further factor of about three against chance.

It is counted as a reproduced run, but as a probable one. The chance of this fit in its window is about 2 %.

Counts

Observed N per draw. Filled dots: the seed reproduces the count exactly. Hover for the post. Amber marks on the baseline: skipped draws, draws with no post in our data (a band marks a skipped draw inside a block of posts, whose place in the block is not known).

Posts

Post	Title	Posted (UTC)	Draw	N	Predicted	Mask seed	Status
`18guf1`	`201302131600`	2013-02-13 21:00:00	1	36	36 ✓	77	explained
`18jdpo`	`201302141559`	2013-02-14 20:59:59	2	60	60 ✓	817	explained
`18lmzz`	`201302151559`	2013-02-15 20:59:58	3	60	60 ✓	640	explained
`18nll6`	`201302161559`	2013-02-16 20:59:56	4	44	44 ✓	575	explained
`18pj8s`	`201302171559`	2013-02-17 20:59:56	5	40	40 ✓	410	explained
`18rtt6`	`201302181559`	2013-02-18 20:59:56	6	52	52 ✓	204	explained
`18u97i`	`201302191559`	2013-02-19 20:59:53	7	36	36 ✓	990	explained
`18wpsw`	`201302201559`	2013-02-20 20:59:52	8	36	36 ✓	794	explained
`18z62x`	`201302211559`	2013-02-21 20:59:50	9	32	32 ✓	574	explained